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07/06/2010 - Newton, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date: Sunday, July 11. Race: Lucas Oil 200. Site: Iowa Speedway. Track: .875-mile oval. Start time: 2:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 175. 2009 winner: Mike Skinner. Television: SPEED. Radio: Motor Racing Network(MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.
After a three-week hiatus, the Camping World Truck Series returns to action this weekend at Iowa Speedway. Iowa kicks off a nine-week stretch of racing in the series.
Todd Bodine currently holds a 55-point lead over Aric Almirola, who won the most recent truck race on June 12 at Michigan. Almirola claimed his first career truck win in May at Dover.
"We've been on a roll here lately," Almirola said. "It would be awesome to leave Iowa with another trophy this year. We were competitive there last year. We ran second, and I felt like we had a good truck, but we weren't good enough to win. We were just good enough to run second."
Mike Skinner won the 2009 inaugural truck race at Iowa. Skinner led all but 20 of the 200 laps, but had just enough fuel remaining to hold off Almirola in a four-lap shootout to the finish. Almirola's second-place run was his career- best finish in the series at the time.
"I feel really confident going back there, and if everything plays out right, you never know what could happen," Almirola added.
David Starr is expected to make his 250th career start at Iowa. Starr, who made his first truck start in 1998 at Phoenix, will become the fourth active driver to reach this milestone. He will join Rick Crawford, Dennis Setzer and four-time series champion Ron Hornaday Jr.
"I've been very fortunate and blessed that I have been racing at this level for this long," said Starr, who drives the No.81 Toyota for Randy Moss Motorsports. "To make it to 250 is very cool, but what I really want to do is make at least 250 more starts after that."
Thirty-eight teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Lucas Oil 200.
<< Chicagoland kicks off the second-half of 2010 season
Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Saturday, July
10. Race: LifeLock.com 400. Site: Chicagoland Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval.
Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 267. Miles: 400.5. 2009 winner: Mark Martin.
Televisio
<< Blum to have surgery
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Astros infielder Geoff Blum will
undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow Wednesday morning.
The operation is scheduled to take place at the Texas Orthopedic Hospital and
will be perfor
<< This Week in Auto Racing July 9 - 11
Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a busy weekend of racing, as the NASCAR
Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series run under the lights at Chicagoland Speedway.
The Camping World Truck Series returns to action at Iowa Speedway, and Formula
One rev
<< Blazers sign Babbitt
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers have signed forward
Luke Babbitt, the 16th overall pick in this year's NBA Draft.
Babbitt was selected by Minnesota, but was then traded on draft night, along
with forward Ryan Gom
Cano among initial six chosen for HR Derby >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano
was among six players chosen initially for this year's All-Star Home Run
Derby, to be held next Monday in Anaheim.
Other players to commit from the Ameri
Rangers-Indians game delayed after fan falls from upper deck >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tuesday's Indians-Rangers game was stopped
for about 15 minutes during the bottom of the fifth inning after a fan fell
from the upper deck while reaching for a foul ball.
The fan fell down to the grandstand l
Span's hit in eighth boosts Twins over Blue Jays >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denard Span's RBI single in the eighth proved
to be the difference, and the Minnesota Twins beat the Toronto Blue Jays, 7-6,
in a back-and-forth affair at Rogers Centre.
Span finished with two RBI for the Twi
Santana's arm, bat lead Mets past Reds >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johan Santana pitched a brilliant three-hit
shutout and also hit the first home run of his career to lead the New York
Mets to a 3-0 win over the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field.
Santana (6-5), who had l
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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