02/09/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kelley Cain scored a career-high 19 points and No. 5 Tennessee came back from an eight-point deficit to top Vanderbilt, 69-60, to sweep the regular season series.
Glory Johnson, Angie Bjorklund and Alyssia Brewer each contributed 10 points for the Lady Vols (21-2, 9-1 SEC), who upended the Commodores in Knoxville on January 17.
Merideth Marsh led Vanderbilt (17-7, 6-5) with 19 points. Jence Rhoads added 15, and Lauren Lueders 12.
Vandy led 28-20 with 4:08 left in the opening half, but the Lady Vols scored the final eight of the half. Tennessee fell behind 47-40 with 8:41 left, but then ripped off a decent run to grab a 54-51 lead following a pair of Alicia Manning layups.
Rhoads made a pair of free throws for a 58-57 deficit for Vandy inside three minutes, but Tennessee ran off the next 11 points to seal the victory.
Tennessee made 14-of-26 field goal attempts in the second half, compared to 9-of-25 for Vandy.
<< Stewart, Yip help Avs upend Blues
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Stewart had a goal and two assists as the
Colorado Avalanche downed the St. Louis Blues, 5-2, at Pepsi Center.
Brandon Yip had two goals while Paul Stastny added a goal and an assist for
the Avalanche
<< Jayhawks capitalize on turnovers to top Texas
Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcus Morris posted 18 points, eight rebounds
and four assists, as No. 1 Kansas overcame a poor shooting performance by
clamping down defensively on the 14th-ranked Longhorns to earn an 80-68 Big 12
victory
<< Carter and Orlando stay hot with win over Hornets
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vince Carter scored 34 of his season-high 48
points in the second half, rallying Orlando to a second straight victory,
123-117 over the New Orleans Hornets.
Carter scored nine during a 19-0 rally in
<< Muse, Boston College top BU in Beanpot final
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barry Almeida picked up the game-winning goal
early in the third period, as Boston College held off a late Boston University
rally to post a 4-3 victory in the championship game of the 58th annual
Beanpot
Ducks win 10th in a row at home, snap LA's victory streak >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Corey Perry had a goal and two assists to lead
the Anaheim Ducks to a 4-2 win over Los Angeles and snap the Kings' franchise-
best nine-game winning streak.
Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne each had a goal and an
Gasol carries short-handed Lakers over Spurs >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pau Gasol had a spectacular all-around game
with 21 points, 19 rebounds, a season-high eight assists and five blocked
shots, pacing the Los Angeles Lakers to a 101-89 win over the San Antonio
Spurs.
Mavs send Warriors to ninth straight loss; Ellis hurts knee >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Terry made 6-of-9 three-point tries,
finishing with a season-high 36 points, along with nine assists and six
rebounds, as Dallas took control in the fourth quarter in a 127-117 victory
over Go
Berdych, Dent victorious in San Jose >>
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fifth-seeded Czech Tomas Berdych and unseeded
American Taylor Dent were first-round winners Monday at the $600,000 SAP Open.
Dent topped fellow countryman Alex Bogomolov Jr, 6-4, 7-6 (7-2) on the indoor
hardco
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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